What We Do

Simulation Modeling

We project long-term, population outcomes to support healthcare and policy leaders in setting treatment and harm reduction priorities to care for people who use substances.

Substance use disorder is not a solo epidemic–it is one part of a syndemic that also encompasses greater risks for HCV, HIV, and injection-related bacterial infections. The broad spectrum of clinical and economic consequences of this syndemic compels us to use simulation modeling to measure the long-term economic value of interventions in innovative ways.

Introduction

Simulation models integrate up-to-date knowledge about the epidemiology of substance use disorder, treatment outcomes, and resource utilization to make policy-relevant insights about treatment and care. In addition, simulation modeling research allows us to examine benefits and costs from multiple perspectives, such as the community, the healthcare system, the criminal-legal system, or the broader societal perspective. Most importantly, simulation modeling allows us to study scenarios that would not be possible in the real world at the pace required for decision-making.

Methods We Have Used

  • Markov Modeling
  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Discrete Event Simulation (DES)
  • Compartmental Modeling
  • Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)

Related Content

12/03/24 Research Highlight

Cost-Effectiveness of Fibrosis Staging

More than 4 million people in the U.S. live with a hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnosis. However, as of 2022, fewer than one-third of individuals infected with HCV have been cured due to barriers related to high direct-acting antiviral (DAA) pricing and the steps involved in determining someone’s degree of liver disease or fibrosis. In […]

05/02/24 Research Highlight

Cost-Effectiveness of Strategies for Treatment Timing for Perinatally Acquired Hepatitis C Virus

Children with perinatally acquired hepatitis C virus (HCV) are now eligible to receive direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), a highly effective treatment for HCV, as early as the age of 3. Despite existing studies demonstrating DAA’s high efficacy and tolerance among adults and children between the 3 and 12 years old, there has been low uptake due […]

10/16/22 Research Highlight

Engaging with People with Lived Experiences in OUD Modeling Research

Drug overdose deaths continue to rise in the United States and Canada, with the risks for greater opioid use sharply increasing in Mexico. As modelers, we know simulation modeling is a valuable tool that can inform policies and interventions to prevent overdose deaths and reduce related harms including drug overdose, HIV, and hepatitis C virus […]

10/08/21 Research Highlight

Ending HIV in the United States Will Require a Substantial Financial Commitment

“What will it take to end HIV in the United States?” is a pressing question posed by public health officials, researchers, and policymakers alike. Population Data & Modeling Core Director Benjamin Linas seeks to answer that question by amplifying notable results from a simulation modeling study published by researchers at Johns Hopkins. In an editorial issued in the Annals of […]

11/09/20 Research Highlight

Dissemination Science to Advance the Use of Simulation Modeling

COVID-19 has brought simulation modeling to the foreground of public discourse, as policy makers and stakeholders project the effects of different interventions to “flatten the curve.” Simulation models allow investigators to tinker with different conditions of the world to observe how they affect future outcomes; however, translating the models’ results to the public can be […]

10/12/20 Research Highlight

Modeling infective endocarditis mortality associated with injection opioid use

Injection-related infective endocarditis (IE) is a serious and expensive medical complication among people who inject drugs (PWID). In some states, such as North Carolina there has been a 12-fold increase in injection-related IE between 2007 and 2017. Approximately 1.3% of people who inject drugs report IE within the past year, and between 0.5% and 11.8% report IE […]

05/06/20 Research Highlight

Simulation Modeling Presents Opportunities To Support The Public Health Response To The Opioid Crisis In North America

Although there are several evidence-based cost-effective interventions for people with opioid use disorder (OUD), they are underutilized. Questions remain regarding intervention selection, and cost of service delivery. Simulation modeling offers an opportunity to support decision making to address the syndemic of opioid overdose, HIV, and hepatitis C (HCV). In an article recently published in the International Journal […]

03/17/20 Research Highlight

Optimizing HIV Prevention in Six US Cities: An Economic Model

In 2019, the United States launched the effort to End the HIV Epidemic by reducing new infections by 75% within 5 years and by 90% within 10 years. This national strategy comes with some new funding for the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), and the Ryan White HIV/AIDS […]

12/09/19 Profile Feature

Methodology Consultation Success Story: Dr. Ashish Premkumar

The incidence of neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS), also known as neonatal withdrawal syndrome, increased nationally from 3.4 per 1000 hospital births in 2009 to 5.8 in 2012. Recent estimates of NAS cost $1.5 billion dollars with the majority of the financial burden falling to state Medicaid programs. However, pregnancy offers a unique opportunity for women with […]

10/31/19 Research Highlight

USPSTF and CDC Recommend Expanded HCV Testing for All US Adults

The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) released a draft recommendation for hepatitis C (HCV) antibody and RNA screening in all adults ages 18 to 79. This is a departure from their current 2013 recommendation of risk-based screening, including people who inject drugs (PWID), and one-time screening in baby boomers born between 1945 and 1965.  The recommendation […]

Related Tools & Resources